On the threshold of a new industrial revolution © Alexander Antonov, Nina Karnaukh, 2007 e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org phone/fax: 38 (044) 424-3587 «The business enterprise in general a long ago needs introduction of the systems with the elements of artificial intelligence» D. Michi, R. Jonston. A computer is a creator. М. World. 1987. Annotation New information technologies are so effective and so changed a world economy that a new industrial revolution can begin already tomorrow. Table of contents Introduction 1. Artificial intellect 1.1. Problem of artificial intellect 1.2. Danger of artificial intellect 1.3. Does computer think now 1.3.1. What does "to think" mean 1.3.2. Tests of computer thought 1.4. Explanation of contradictory results of testing of computers 2. Computer intellect 2.1. Comparison of problems of artificial and computer intellect. 2.2. Comparison of human and computer intellect 2.3. Problem of computer intellect 2.4. Technical realization of the personal memory 2.5. Accident prevention 3. Use of computer intellect 3.1. Use of computer intellect in science 3.2. Use of computer intellect in an economy 4. Conclusions References Introduction In 1831 one of members of British parliament asked the founder of theory of electricity of Michael Faradey, what benefit to the people can bring his works. Faradey answered that did not know. And the industrial revolution generated by the use of electricity began after a while. And now new information technologies are so effective and so changed a world economy, that a new industrial revolution can begin already tomorrow , . New information technologies offered by us , , including market oriented, will allow to the countries connected to Telannet, quickly to score great successes in economic development. 1. Artificial intellect 1.1. Problem of artificial intellect The problem of artificial intellect in the «Large encyclopedia of Cyril and Mefodiy»  is determined as section of informatics, including development of methods of modelling and reproduction by the computer of separate functions of intellection of man - verbal and writing speech, pattern recognition, expert estimations and other However for time, passing from the moment of formulation of problem of artificial intellect, the attempts of its solution practically reached an impasse. And primary enthusiasm of scientists was replaced by deep pessimism. For example, the director of institute in the name of Alan T'yuring the doctor Donald Michi on this occasion writes : "...the great number existes ... natural tasks; many of them for a man are so banal, that solving them he realizes rarely, that shows remarkable capabilities, to which at modern level of development of the computing engineering it is impossible to be even approached. Among these tasks is domain by a natural language, understanding of verbal speech, ability to understand an environment through visual perception." The professor of the Kharkov university V. М. Kuklin adheres to the same point of view : "Nature, certainly, prompts to us, how to create artificial intelligence, but people while are not able to repeat achievement of nature even in a minimum degree. Alike, that a man accomplishes only the first and uncertain steps to the awareness of that, what surprising... he possesses capabilities, and also what unique phenomenon of nature he is" 1.2. Danger of artificial intelligence And the awareness of danger of artificial intelligence appeared simultaneously with formulation of problem of artificial intelligence. Here is opinion on that score: • professor of the Massachusets technological institute Norbert Viner : "Question. Dr Viner does danger exist, that will calculable machines one day score off above people? Answer. Such danger exists undoubtedly." • director of institute in the name of Alan T'yuring the doctor Michi Donald : "Prospect to have machines so talented and mighty, what we them imagine, can show oneself unpleasant, even frightening.... However much a similar philosophical considering, so important they not appeared must not prevent us to search the way of application of a new technique. If it will be succeeded our future will be better than itself can imagine. If no, we can not have the future in general ." Even creating robots, new computer technique, new programs, new biotechnologies, scientists and engineers now anymore think about that how it will be reflected on their career and how many they will begin to work thereon, than above the remote consequences of the works. In scientific and technical association, unlike medical association, principle "DO NOT HARM!" did not yet become generally accepted and obligatory for execution. Therefore, obviously, it is very important to know, when computers will begin to think. And in advance it is time to begin to think that it is needed to do already now, that thinking computers were not able to represent a danger for people. 1.3. Does a computer think now To answer on this question it is needed at least well to understand sense of every word. Sense of the word "computer" is clear to each. This is that at many stands on a desktop. But do we understand sense of word to "to think"? 1.3.1. What does "to think" mean In the «Large encyclopedia Cyril and Mefodiy»  is written: • "Intellect (from lat. intellectus is cognition, understanding, reason) - ability of thought, rational cognition". • "Thought is the higher stage of human cognition. Allows to get knowledge about such objects, properties and relations of the real world, which can not be directly perceived on the perceptible stage of cognition". However from the last determination wrong conclusions can be done that: • the problems of artificial intelligence (for example, pattern recognitions) are not intellectual and does not refer to thought; • and in general no superhuman, including computer, an intellect can not be. Consequently, if even in an encyclopedia is given wrong determination of concept "to think", it is possible to do a conclusion that not always and not all get it right it. Therefore we will give the determination free of the indicated failings: "Thought is such analysis of a new information joint with the repeated analysis of old information, which results in conclusions are useful to subsequent activity of thinker". 1.3.2. Tests of computer thought Numerous tests are offered for an answer for a question whether a computer thinks . Including: • test of T'yuring Alan : "A computer can be considered reasonable, if it is able to compel us to believe that we deal not with a machine, but with a man". • test of Norbert Vyner : "All machines applying on a "reasonableness must possess ability to pursue certain goals and adapt, I.e. be taught". • test of Marvyn Minskiy and Seymur Peypert : "A machine possesses an intellect, if the task which it executes would demand from a man - be he in place of machine - intellectual efforts". However much the use of the indicated tests, appeared, results in ambiguous results. So, in accordance with the criteria indicated in the tests of T'yuring and Viner, modern computers already think primitively. And in accordance with the criteria indicated in the test of Minskiy and Peypert, they do not yet think. 1.4. Explanation of contradictory results of testing of computers And this discord in conclusions, naturally, requires the explanation. In our view, it is explained by a different ways of understanding of word "to think". The point is that it is necessary to distinguish usual thought, which is incident to all people, and creative thought, on which not many people are capable only. For example, the tasks of pattern, acquirement by verbal and writing speech, acceptance of decisions recognition refer to usual thought, translation from one human language to other and other. These tasks as it applies to their solution by a computer, traditionally attribute to the problem of artificial intellect. The tasks of creation of scientific theories, invention activity, successful exchange game and other refer to creative thought, i.e. tasks with not fully certain terms, accoplished by a man with the use of the so-called intuition. These tasks refer to the subproblem of artificial intelligence, which for definiteness we will name the problem of computer intellect. Both types of thought are very important thus, as usual thought provides the survival of everybody but creative thought provides progress of all humanity. It ensues from foregoing, that the tests of T'yuring and Viner refer to usual thought (more precisely only to some elements of usual thought), and test of Minskiy and Peypert - to creative thought. Therefore we draw conclusion is no modern computer yet can not think, although because all, that a computer does it does not in favor to itself, and only for the good of man. 2. Computer intellect 2.1. Comparison of problems of artificial and computer intellect. Now specialists on a computer technique, to programing, psychology and others suppose that the tasks of usual thought are always simpler than tasks of creative thought and it is impossible to acquire creative thought, not acquiring ordinary thought. And the all efforts are outlaid on the solution of problem of artificial intellect and the solution of problem of computer intellect is put aside on the distant future. For people assertion about greater complication of creative thought as compared to usual thought is correct. And for computers, it appears, no! The point is that simple and difficult correspond in human machine civilization and living nature substantially are different concepts. We will make examples. The revolved details, for example, wheels, propellers, cog-wheels, are not used in living nature. In aviation, vice versa, an aircraft with flapping wings is not used. And stepping or jumping cars are not used in the ground vehicle. Yet example. For a man mathematical operations of addition, subtraction, multbigogcation and division are the simplest, and more difficult are mathematical operations of differentiation and integration. In analog radio electronics for realization mathematical operations of differentiation, integration, addition and subtraction are the simplest, and more difficult are mathematical operations multbigogcation and division. Similar examples it is possible to bring the great number over. But above-mentioned misbelief about impossibility for the computers of acquirement by creative thought presently is so generally accepted, that it speaks out even in science fiction literature . And it is possible not to doubt, that the supporters of this misbelief will persistently defend the rightness, thus not only scientific but also administrative and all other facilities accessible to them. So was always. For example , "in 1496 the Spanish mathematician Paolo Valmes met with a "great inquisitor" and amateur of mathematics by Thomas Torkvemadoy. A talk turned to the solution of equalizations 4th degrees. Torkvemada declared that such equalizations can not be solved, because their solution by will of Lord for a human reason is unattainable. Valmes declared in reply, that such equalizations to them are solved... In that night Valmes was thrown into prison of inquisition "for the fight against divine will". In three weeks was burned out him". On this occasion famous physicist a Nobel laureate Max Plank wrote : "Usually new the truths of science are won not so, that convince their opponents and they admited to being in wrong, and mainly so, that these opponents die out gradually, and a rising generation masters truth at once". 2.2. Comparison of human and computer intellect And foremost for this mentioned by Max Plank rising generation yet unladen by the load of prejudices, obviously, makes sense to consider some aspects of problem of computer intellect in more detail. For this purpose it is useful to compare a man and personal computer, as informative machines, as is present a lot in common at them: • at a man, as well as at a computer, is present mean of treatment of information is his cerebrum; • at a man, as well as at a computer, is present mean of storage of information is his memory (also being in a cerebrum, I.e. very near); • at a man, as well as at a computer, is present mean of input of information are his sense-organs and etc Thus the processor of the personal computer on the degree of the perfection, it would seem, considerably excels the processor (I.e. cerebrum) of man. Indeed, the personal computer with high speed executes the calculations of the multiple-valued numbers on difficult formulas. A man in a mind to solve such tasks is not capable. And even on a paper or on a calculator does it slowly. However much the brain of man prompts him the correct solution in difficult vital situations, when many important circumstances are not fully known or even fully unknown. Moreover, he possesses very valuable property of intuition. And this intuition helps a man to find an exit from hopeless it would seem, situations. But to account nobody can as yet for it. For example, about unsuccessful attempts to account for the intuition and describe the algorithm of successful exchange activity the known financier George Soros wrote : "...Geyzenberg formulated the scientific theory of vagueness, while my model helps to deal with vaguenesses unscientific methods. It is important distinction. In obedience to scientific standards my theory is unavailing" Thus, a computer processor solves so complicated but clearly formulated problems much quick than man. A computer does not solve the however unclear formulated tasks and a man solves. Facilities of storage of information in to the brain of man on an informative volume excel the informative volume of memory of the personal computer. Moreover,a new and new information continuously is received by this memory during all life, i. е. a man, unlike a computer, has a memory (i. e. head) not so empty. And in the cerebrum of man eyes are the basic mean of input of information. Through them comes of more than 90% all information got a man . Therefore a man thinks mainly by visualizations. Eyes, as mean of input of information, are considerably more a speed mean than computer keyboard or modem connected to the Internet. Therefore on the whole a man, as informative machine, is now considerably more perfect informative machine, than the personal computer. So, the personal computer yields to the man: • to the size of informative volume of the memory; • to speed of input in memory of information; • to an amount and quality of the information kept in his memory; • to the algorithms of treatment of information entering processor. Consequently, by the second (but not last) reason not allowing now to the computer to think, there is that circumstance, that its memory is not enough perfect. And, in particular, does not contain valuable and enough complete information. Thus, a computer intellect, as well as man, is determined by the degree of perfection not only of processor but its memory and its content. The other reasons not allow now to the computer to think deserve separate consideration. 2.3. Problem of computer intellect So what must be done that the personal computer got possibility to think? Or, otherwise speaking, how to realize a computer intellect? It ensues from foregoing, that for the successful solution of the before mentioned tasks of computer intellect the very large volume of reliable initial information is needed. Therefore to realize a computer intellect, computer memory must be done, vividly expressed, more anthropoid, i.e: • the informative volume of computer memory must be considerably megascopic; • minimum access time to all information kept in such computer memory must be well-to-do to the processor; • computer memory must be maximally complete loaded by necessary information; • the information loaded in memory of computer must be maximally reliable, I.e. this memory must contain most fresh, and forget substantially out-of-date information. We will mark thus, that a condition by the "а" developers of the personal computers is already realized, as in a high degree actual. And they in development of memory of the personal computers attain very great successes. The condition of "b" means that the database used by the personal computer must be the personal, I.e. be kept in memory of the most personal computer (instead of a remote shareable database, with which is communicated over the Internet). The terms of "c" and "d" are meant, that the information kept in the such personal database must be so complete and reliable, that will allow as a result of its analysis correctly to understand the problem decided by an user. Consequently, these terms are meant that the personal database must continuously and with maximally high speed to brush up. Memory of the personal computer, which will fulfil conditions of "а" - "d", we will name the personal. 2.4. Technical realization of the personal memory We will remind, that in order that the personal computer was able to think, it at least, must be equipped by the personal memory. The such personal memory can be realized technically  -  by connecting of existent memory of the personal computers through the special television adapters  to the network of transmition of computer information on television (or other broadband, for example, fiber-optic) communication channels. We will name a such informative network "Telannet". And it will allow considerably to accelerate the process of load of the personal memory by information which is passed with speed approximately in thousand one times to more high than on telephone channels. Moreover, on television channels information is broacasted to the very large number of users simultaneously, that is additional, on a few orders, promotes the carrying capacity of such informative network. Therefore the subscription pay for them will be very low. High reliability of television translation of computer information can be provided with the use of antinoise codes. By substantial additional dignity of such system of informative support of the personal memory of the personal computers through the Telannet, unlike the existent Internet, there is the reliable providing of informative safety of the personal computers, I.e. effective defense from computer viral infections, from hackers, from spam. Actuality of this dignity of Telannet is confirmed, for example, by the prognosis of professor of the Helsinki technological university Khannu Kary, which supposed that from destructive influence on the existent Internet of unconscientious users he already in 2006 practically will halt the existence . Finally, we will mark that a aforesaid informative network is not an alternative to the existent Internet, and it is addition, as creates new services which can not be realized in the existent Internet. Opening out the such global television network of informative support of the personal memory of computers (foremost personal) is possible very quickly, as practically all for this purpose is already: • satellite trasponderes, • stations of the ether and cable television broadcasting, • proper informative services; • personal computers and systems of bulk storage. And organizing development and issue to the market of a new software and television adapters is simple. There is patent defense of a such new informative network  -  and other 2.5. Accident prevention But do we need a thinking computer? Asking about it is better late than never. Indeed, before to create a thinking computer, it is necessary to understand and whether he is needed to us. For this purpose it is necessary to answer on questions: • If computers will become more clever than man, will not they subordinate to itself people? • At what circumstances will people be able to use thinking computers not giving them to dominate above itself? • As far as quickly people are necessary to answer on all these questions not to lose the control above a situation? And at once we will give the answers for these questions: • Yes, if not to take special measures, in the future there can be computer civilization not undercontrol to the people and which will subordinate itself people. • That people could use thinking computers, not giving them to dominate above itself, it is necessary to observe the proper accident prevention (about it see below). • All these problems people must solve already in 21th age, otherwise it will be late. And here can be another question: instead of whether we contradict to itself. Indeed, from one side, we speak about dangers from the side of computers, if they will become more clever. And from other side, we search the way of maximally rapid receipt in the order of such clever computers. The answer is simple - it is natural, no. In fact dangers threaten to the man at the careless use and other achievements of science and technique: cars and airplanes, atomic energy and gene engineering, Internet and domestic electrical engineering, medications, domestic chemistry and great deal other. But in fact on this account nobody is going to renounce blessings of civilization. People know simply, that the proper accident prevention which is necessary to observe it. The therefore proper accident prevention must be observed at the use and development of new computers. As it applies to computers these safety measures, obviously, must it is assured to eliminate possibility of independent thought and use of results of such thought in harm not under control to the man. By such measures, in particular, would be: • prevention of possibility of association of intellectual resources of large number of computers not under control to the man; • prevention of possibility of the use by the computers of databases not under control to the man (special on a computer technique programing); • prevention of possibility of change of the computers of the programs kept in memory not under control to the man; • prevention of possibility of connecting of computers not under control to the man to the energy sources; • stopping (and more that is prohibition) of works on artificial intelligence, including developments of robots . The last, probably, requires explanation. How already registered in a section 1.4, uncreative thought to the man is more necessary creative, as it is required continuously all time for maintenance of his vital functions. It is just for computers. Therefore computers which in the future will get ability of creative thought and by virtue of it will be able to represent a large danger for a man will not be able to exist without a man, if a capacity will not be got for uncreative thought, proper to artificial intelligence, i.e.: • to understand maintenance of verbal and writing speech of man, both typewritten and handwritten text; • to identify people, other living creatures and lifeless objects surrounding them (for example, fork and wall outlet of power supply); • independently to move and accomplish other motions and etc 3. Use of computer intellect 3.1. Use of computer intellect in science And the such personal computer equipped by the personal memory which for informative support is connected to the Telannet network, already will be able to solve some creative tasks which concern with the problem of computer intellect at least. And foremost this are scientific tasks of cognition of conformities to the law in substantially multifactor processes. The scientific and technical (for example, thermonuclear synthesis) concern with them, medical (for example, diseases), geophysical (for example, earthquakes, tsunamis), meteorological (I.e. changes of weather), biological (for example, senescence) and many other. However as thinking computer, unlike the personal computer, as was mentioned in a section 2.5, can represent a large danger, it is assured must not have possibility to think independently in the computer interests. We need a thinking computer as an intellectual helper which will think only jointly with a man and only for the good of man. Therefore unlike an independently thinking computer which is dangerous to the man, it is expedient to name such computer which will think only jointly with a man somehow differently. For example, by a "intellectual computer". And that "intellectual computer" could give real help to the man in its creative thought, it is needed to understand which one is required to the man help. Or in other words, what stages of creative thinking process for a man are difficult and what not very much. Therefore formal we will divide a such creative thinking process on two substantially different on maintenance stage: • exposure of factors, substantially influencing on the explored process, and sifting out of not substantial or quite unimportant factors; • determination of mathematical dependence between the exposed substantial factors. And it appears that for a man in the process of creative thought the first stage is more difficult, I.e. exposure of substantial factors influencing on the results of the explored process, and sifting out of unimportant factors. Thus a man is able relatively successfully to analyse processes, which the amount of factors associate by cause-and-effect communications is very small in, I.e. does not exceed two - three. It is explained it, obviously, that as a man lives in a three-dimensional world, thinking by visualizations, he easily can imagine two-dimensional or three-dimensional dependences. And in more multidimensional space man even the simplest tasks - for example, to imagine, as a cube in four-dimensional space looks - already can not decide. Most events what is going on in the real life are the earthquakes and other natural calamities, changes of weather, illnesses, economic crisis, failures of the complicated scientific and technical systems and etc - are the result of co-operation of plenty (for example, a few thousand and more) of factors. But for a computer the number of factors is a quantitative, instead of high-quality difference. Therefore even substantially the multifactor phenomena he is able successfully to analyse. Especially as the proper mathematical vehicle and software exist already. 3.2. Use of computer intellect in an economy Cognition of multifactor processes in an economy is no less important than in science. Indeed, in spite of striking successes of world economy in ХХ age, economic development of society, nevertheless, is carried out far slower than it is allowed by modern science and technique. We will cite on this occasion only one quotation : "...let’s see on deep stagnation in an economy, high unemployment rate... All these phenomena indeed taking place on the face of it are quite inexplicable... scientific and technical development takes place not simply with permanent speed: by whatever method we estimated his rates, obviously, that they increase steadily. Why we do not grow rich by the same rates... Becomes all more clear, that exactly complication of administrative mechanism is guilty in our economic stagnation." From other side, for the last decades thanking the increase of labour productivity new to information technologies caused high-quality changes of economy - appearance of new economic phenomena, to which terms correspond decapitalization, globalization, postindustrial society. They, in particular, are reflected circumstance that in the cost of the finished good part of the expenses conditioned by intellectual labour, all more and more increases. A large number appeared cleanly intellectual products, in the cost of which the stake conditioned by unintellectual labour and raw material in general can be absent: patents, now-how, software, marketing researches and etc. Number of such products increases steadily. And today developed countries are those countries, in which the part of intellectual labour in the cost of the finished good already exceeds the parts of unintellectual labour and raw material. Investment attractiveness of intellectual labour considerably (on a lot of orders) higher of investment attractiveness of other types of labour. Therefore developments of intellectual labour conduct mainly rich countries where the general level of population is higher, a telecommunication infrastructure is better and the greatest standard of living of highly skilled part of workers-intellectual persons is well-to-do. And from it rich countries become yet more rich . The considered higher new information technologies proper to the solutions of some tasks of problem of computer intellect offered by us raise efficiency of entrepreneurial activity not only scientific but also, that will allow to accelerate economic development of countries which will be to use them. And to such new information technologies intended for support of business, the global computer-television exchange system belongs , . Apparently, the such global/regional computer-television exchange system contains those components that the before considered informative network Telannet. With an unique difference, presence of additional narrow-band reverse communication network (for example, telephone) from the personal computers to the regional informative centers. It will allow to create the major service of Telannet - most modern and largest electronic market. A presence in Telannet such service will allow to do the proper investment project maximally attractive as provides its rapid self-repayment. The popular computer-television exchange system functions as follows. Existent data banks, office workers by exchange centers, by traditional appearance exchange information which comes to them from the regions on narrow-band flow lines through the existent inexpensive devices of input/conclusion of information (for example, modems) and other regions on broadband flow lines is continuously accumulated. Thus first, for example, 24 hours it is saved in the section of memory for a new information, and then is passed in the section of the archived memory. By the computer of administrator of data bank all new information is classified and by the periodic issues is given on a regional receiving-passing center, from where in final analysis spreads on the region the wide world. The users of computers after treatment of the accepted information on narrow-band reverse flow lines report in a regional center the decisions about the purchase/sale with pointing of indexes of the proper commodities, services and etc. They also on those narrow-band reverse communication channels make suggestions for auctions. Thus they, naturally, are carried out necessary bank transactions. In an exchange center on the basis of this information decisions are made in accordance with pointing of owners of commodities, services and etc The considered computer-television exchange system, as it was already marked, is unfolded maybe to be very quickly. The such computer-television exchange system will allow it to the subscribers to do the business (especially shallow and middle business not having powerful publicity and marketing services) considerably more profitable and intellectual, because: • will maximally draw together salespeople and buyers; • will allow considerably to accelerate the turn of financial means; • will allow substantially to raise the level of understanding of the state of market affairs and the same multiply efficiency of the solutions of the problems accepted by businessmen; • and most important - will allow effectively to co-ordinate interests of separate businessmen and economic association on the whole. In final analysis, the such computer-television exchange system will allow the process of economic development, reminding presently brownian motion, to do more well-organized and civilized, that will considerably accelerate development of the regions overcame by it. 4. Conclusions Thus, new vehicle-programmatic facilities are offered which include : • intellectual computers which contain besides the personal computer: o personal memory, o television adapters, o new system and applied software; • informative network of the computer-television broadcasting Telannet, which can have services: o informative support of intellectual computers, o computer-television exchange system, o service of teaching and other New information technologies being based on these vehicle-programmatic facilities will be allowed: • it is considerably to raise efficiency of individual creative labour, that would allow effectively to work out numerous intellectual problems: o scientific and technical (creation of a new technique); o medical (treatment of illnesses); o biological (senescence, heredity); o geoclimatic (long-term weather forecast, prediction of earthquakes, tsunamis and other of natural calamities); o administrative and managerial (optimum management by large companies, states, battle actions); o effective search of minerals and etc. • it is considerably to raise efficiency of regional and global economic processes for the account: o the best awareness by the subjects of entrepreneurial activity of the state of affairs of market, and also tendencies of regional and world economy; o the best use by the subjects of entrepreneurial activity of results of scientific and technical activity of humanity; o the best mutual concordance of interests of separate subjects of entrepreneurial activity and society on the whole; o increases of authenticity of prognoses and other Aforesaid, new information technologies and proper vehicle-programmatic facilities have patent defense. 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